From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Monday, December 25, 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 359 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Dec 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (26 Dec, 27 Dec, 28 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 570 km/s at 24/2104Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 25/2009Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 25/2008Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 237 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (26 Dec) and quiet levels on days two and three (27 Dec, 28 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 26 Dec-28 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Dec 076
Predicted 26 Dec-28 Dec 075/075/074
90 Day Mean 25 Dec 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Dec 009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Dec 010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Dec-28 Dec 007/008-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Dec-28 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 25/20/15
Major-severe storm 25/20/10
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