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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 December 2017

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Tuesday, December 26, 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 360 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Dec 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (27 Dec, 28 Dec, 29 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 484 km/s at 26/1945Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 25/2105Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 25/2146Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 704 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (27 Dec), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (28 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (29 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Dec-29 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Dec 072
Predicted   27 Dec-29 Dec 072/072/071
90 Day Mean        26 Dec 074

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Dec  009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Dec  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Dec-29 Dec  010/008-007/006-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Dec-29 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/10/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           25/20/15
Major-severe storm    20/15/10

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