From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Tuesday, December 26, 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 360 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Dec 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (27 Dec, 28 Dec, 29 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 484 km/s at 26/1945Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 25/2105Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 25/2146Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 704 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (27 Dec), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (28 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (29 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 27 Dec-29 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Dec 072
Predicted 27 Dec-29 Dec 072/072/071
90 Day Mean 26 Dec 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Dec 009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Dec 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Dec-29 Dec 010/008-007/006-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Dec-29 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 25/20/15
Major-severe storm 20/15/10
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