From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, December 28, 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 362 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Dec 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (29 Dec, 30 Dec, 31 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 452 km/s at 28/0112Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 27/2112Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 27/2214Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1545 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (29 Dec, 30 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (31 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 29 Dec-31 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Dec 071
Predicted 29 Dec-31 Dec 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 28 Dec 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Dec 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Dec 007/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Dec-31 Dec 005/005-006/005-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Dec-31 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 05/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 15/15/30
Major-severe storm 15/10/35
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