From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Monday, January 8, 2018
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 8 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jan 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Jan, 10 Jan, 11 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 532 km/s at 08/2051Z. Total IMF reached 20 nT at 08/1226Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 08/1233Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (09 Jan) and quiet levels on days two and three (10 Jan, 11 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jan 070
Predicted 09 Jan-11 Jan 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 08 Jan 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jan 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jan 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan 008/010-006/006-006/006
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 35/20/20
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