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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 January 2018

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Monday, January 8, 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 8 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jan 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Jan, 10 Jan, 11 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 532 km/s at 08/2051Z. Total IMF reached 20 nT at 08/1226Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 08/1233Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (09 Jan) and quiet levels on days two and three (10 Jan, 11 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Jan 070
Predicted   09 Jan-11 Jan 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        08 Jan 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jan  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jan  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan  008/010-006/006-006/006

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/10/10
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    35/20/20


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