Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 January 2018

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Tuesday, January 9, 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 9 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jan 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (10 Jan, 11 Jan, 12 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 584 km/s at 09/0042Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 08/2203Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 08/2221Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (10 Jan) and quiet levels on days two and three (11 Jan, 12 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Jan 071
Predicted   10 Jan-12 Jan 071/070/070
90 Day Mean        09 Jan 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jan  009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jan  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan  007/006-006/006-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    20/20/15

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