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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 January 2018

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, January 11, 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 11 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (12 Jan, 13 Jan, 14 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 429 km/s at 10/2122Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (12 Jan) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (13 Jan, 14 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Jan 071
Predicted   12 Jan-14 Jan 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        11 Jan 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jan  002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan  005/005-012/015-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/30/20
Minor Storm           01/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/30/30
Major-severe storm    10/45/30

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