From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Friday, January 12, 2018
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 12 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jan 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (13 Jan, 14 Jan, 15 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 392 km/s at 11/2358Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 12/1613Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 12/1028Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (13 Jan, 14 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (15 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jan 071
Predicted 13 Jan-15 Jan 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 12 Jan 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jan 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jan 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jan-15 Jan 012/005-010/015-007/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 45/30/20
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