Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 January 2018

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Friday, January 12, 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 12 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jan 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (13 Jan, 14 Jan, 15 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 392 km/s at 11/2358Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 12/1613Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 12/1028Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (13 Jan, 14 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (15 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Jan 071
Predicted   13 Jan-15 Jan 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        12 Jan 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jan  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jan  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jan-15 Jan  012/005-010/015-007/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/10
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    45/30/20

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