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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 January 2018

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, January 25, 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 25 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jan 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (26 Jan, 27 Jan, 28 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 458 km/s at 25/1326Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 24/2116Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 25/0024Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 137 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (26 Jan, 27 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (28 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Jan 070
Predicted   26 Jan-28 Jan 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        25 Jan 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jan  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jan  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jan-28 Jan  007/008-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/15

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