From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, January 25, 2018
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 25 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jan 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (26 Jan, 27 Jan, 28 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 458 km/s at 25/1326Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 24/2116Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 25/0024Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 137 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (26 Jan, 27 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (28 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jan 070
Predicted 26 Jan-28 Jan 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 25 Jan 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jan 006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jan 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jan-28 Jan 007/008-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/15
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