From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Sunday, February 4, 2018
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 35 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Feb 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 04/2024Z from Region 2699 (S04E74). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (05 Feb, 06 Feb, 07 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 389 km/s at 04/2028Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 04/1900Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 04/1709Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (05 Feb) and quiet levels on days two and three (06 Feb, 07 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Feb 073
Predicted 05 Feb-07 Feb 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 04 Feb 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Feb 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Feb 007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb 008/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/15/15
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