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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 February 2018

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Tuesday, February 6, 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 37 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Feb 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 06/1858Z from Region 2699 (S08E51). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (07 Feb) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and three (08 Feb, 09 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 465 km/s at 06/1518Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 06/0101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 06/0942Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (07 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (08 Feb, 09 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Feb 077
Predicted   07 Feb-09 Feb 078/078/078
90 Day Mean        06 Feb 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Feb  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Feb  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Feb-09 Feb  006/005-008/008-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/25
Minor Storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           20/25/30
Major-severe storm    15/20/25

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