From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Saturday, February 10, 2018
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 41 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Feb 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 10/1321Z from Region 2699 (S07E01). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Feb, 12 Feb, 13 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 409 km/s at 10/1847Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 10/0709Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 10/0319Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (11 Feb, 12 Feb, 13 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Feb 078
Predicted 11 Feb-13 Feb 078/078/078
90 Day Mean 10 Feb 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Feb 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Feb 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 15/10/10
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