From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Sunday, February 11, 2018
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 42 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Feb, 13 Feb, 14 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 527 km/s at 11/0048Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 10/2340Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 11/1200Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (12 Feb, 13 Feb, 14 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Feb 078
Predicted 12 Feb-14 Feb 078/078/078
90 Day Mean 11 Feb 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Feb 003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
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