From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Monday, February 12, 2018
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 43 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 12/0135Z from Region 2699 (S07W29). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (13 Feb, 14 Feb, 15 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 348 km/s at 12/1756Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 12/0433Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 12/1729Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (13 Feb), quiet to active levels on day two (14 Feb) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (15 Feb). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (13 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Feb 079
Predicted 13 Feb-15 Feb 078/078/078
90 Day Mean 12 Feb 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb 002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Feb 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb 006/005-007/008-020/028
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 01/10/30
Major-severe storm 01/01/10
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 15/25/25
Major-severe storm 10/35/60
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