From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Friday, March 2, 2018
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 61 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Mar 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 02/1107Z from Region 2700 (N07W68). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (03 Mar) and expected to be very low on days two and three (04 Mar, 05 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 375 km/s at 02/0120Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 02/0635Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 01/2110Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 777 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and three (03 Mar, 05 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (04 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Mar 068
Predicted 03 Mar-05 Mar 070/072/072
90 Day Mean 02 Mar 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Mar 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Mar 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Mar-05 Mar 006/005-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 01/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 15/20/15
Major-severe storm 15/20/15
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