From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Saturday, March 3, 2018
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 62 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Mar 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (04 Mar, 05 Mar, 06 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 347 km/s at 02/2127Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 03/2036Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 03/0904Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1459 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (04 Mar) and quiet levels on days two and three (05 Mar, 06 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 04 Mar-06 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Mar 068
Predicted 04 Mar-06 Mar 070/072/072
90 Day Mean 03 Mar 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Mar 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Mar 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Mar-06 Mar 007/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Mar-06 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 20/15/10
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