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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 March 2018

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Sunday, March 4, 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 63 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Mar 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (05 Mar, 06 Mar, 07 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 461 km/s at 04/0522Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 04/0121Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 04/0121Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1286 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (05 Mar, 06 Mar, 07 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Mar 068
Predicted   05 Mar-07 Mar 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        04 Mar 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Mar  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Mar  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/15/15

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