From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Monday, March 5, 2018
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 64 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Mar 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (06 Mar, 07 Mar, 08 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 400 km/s at 05/1831Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 05/0153Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 05/0508Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (06 Mar, 07 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (08 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Mar 068
Predicted 06 Mar-08 Mar 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 05 Mar 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Mar 007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Mar 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Mar-08 Mar 006/005-006/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 15/15/25
Major-severe storm 15/15/20
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