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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 March 2018

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Monday, March 5, 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 64 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Mar 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (06 Mar, 07 Mar, 08 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 400 km/s at 05/1831Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 05/0153Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 05/0508Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (06 Mar, 07 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (08 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Mar 068
Predicted   06 Mar-08 Mar 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        05 Mar 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Mar  007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Mar  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Mar-08 Mar  006/005-006/005-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/25
Major-severe storm    15/15/20

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