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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 March 2018

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Tuesday, March 6, 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 65 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Mar 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (07 Mar, 08 Mar, 09 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 434 km/s at 06/2057Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 06/1422Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 06/1453Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (07 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (08 Mar, 09 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Mar 068
Predicted   07 Mar-09 Mar 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        06 Mar 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Mar  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Mar  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Mar-09 Mar  006/005-008/008-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/30
Minor Storm           01/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/25/30
Major-severe storm    15/25/45

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