Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 March 2018

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, March 8, 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 67 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Mar 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (09 Mar, 10 Mar, 11 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 376 km/s at 07/2129Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 08/1539Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 08/0439Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (09 Mar), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (10 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (11 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Mar-11 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Mar 067
Predicted   09 Mar-11 Mar 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        08 Mar 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Mar  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Mar  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Mar-11 Mar  009/012-007/010-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Mar-11 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/10
Minor Storm           10/10/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    45/25/10

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