Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 March 2018

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Tuesday, March 13, 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 72 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (14 Mar, 15 Mar, 16 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 389 km/s at 12/2234Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (14 Mar, 15 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (16 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Mar 069
Predicted   14 Mar-16 Mar 069/068/068
90 Day Mean        13 Mar 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Mar  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar  013/018-015/018-010/014

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor Storm           25/25/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    50/55/40

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