From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Friday, May 11, 2018
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 131 Issued at 2200Z on 11 May 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (12 May, 13 May, 14 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 534 km/s at 10/2200Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 11/0755Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 11/1812Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 71659 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (12 May) and quiet levels on days two and three (13 May, 14 May).
III. Event probabilities 12 May-14 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 May 070
Predicted 12 May-14 May 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 11 May 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 May 011/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 May 011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 May-14 May 007/010-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 May-14 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 25/15/15
Major-severe storm 25/10/10
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