Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 May 2018

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Tuesday, May 15, 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 15 May 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (16 May, 17 May, 18 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 467 km/s at 15/1049Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 15/1253Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 15/1413Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 21333 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (16 May), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (17 May) and unsettled to active levels on day three (18 May).

III.  Event probabilities 16 May-18 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 May 070
Predicted   16 May-18 May 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        15 May 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 May  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 May  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May  008/008-013/018-011/014

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 May-18 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/40/35
Minor Storm           05/25/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/60/50

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