From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Sunday, May 20, 2018
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 140 Issued at 2200Z on 20 May 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (21 May, 22 May, 23 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 444 km/s at 20/1533Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 20/0220Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 20/0510Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 626 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (21 May, 22 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (23 May).
III. Event probabilities 21 May-23 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 May 069
Predicted 21 May-23 May 069/069/069
90 Day Mean 20 May 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 May 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 May 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 May-23 May 006/005-006/005-011/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 May-23 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 15/15/30
Major-severe storm 10/10/40
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