Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 May 2018

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Wednesday, May 30, 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 150 Issued at 2200Z on 30 May 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (31
May, 01 Jun, 02 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 389 km/s at 30/1825Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
30/1352Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
30/0412Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 135 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (31 May), quiet to minor storm levels
on day two (01 Jun) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (02

III.  Event probabilities 31 May-02 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 May 075
Predicted   31 May-02 Jun 075/074/073
90 Day Mean        30 May 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 May  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 May  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 May-02 Jun  006/005-012/016-019/026

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 May-02 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/35/35
Minor Storm           01/25/30
Major-severe storm    01/10/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           20/25/20
Major-severe storm    10/60/65

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