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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 June 2018

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Wednesday, June 6, 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 157 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jun 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
06/1100Z from Region 2712 (N14, L=179). There are currently 0 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (07 Jun, 08 Jun, 09 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 462 km/s at 06/1655Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 06/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
06/1822Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 19491 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (07 Jun) and quiet levels
on days two and three (08 Jun, 09 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Jun 071
Predicted   07 Jun-09 Jun 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        06 Jun 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jun  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jun  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jun-09 Jun  008/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/15
Major-severe storm    20/10/10

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