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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 June 2018

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Friday, June 8, 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 159 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jun 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (09 Jun, 10 Jun, 11 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 393 km/s at 08/0042Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
07/2102Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
08/0223Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2574 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (09 Jun, 10 Jun, 11
Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Jun-11 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Jun 068
Predicted   09 Jun-11 Jun 069/069/071
90 Day Mean        08 Jun 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jun  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jun  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jun-11 Jun  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jun-11 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10

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