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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 June 2018

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Saturday, June 9, 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 160 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jun 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (10 Jun, 11 Jun, 12 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 358 km/s at 09/0555Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2016 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (10 Jun, 11 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (12 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Jun-12 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Jun 067
Predicted   10 Jun-12 Jun 068/071/071
90 Day Mean        09 Jun 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jun  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jun  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jun-12 Jun  006/005-006/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jun-12 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/25

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