From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Wednesday, July 4, 2018
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 184 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jul 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (04 Jul, 05 Jul, 06 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 343 km/s at 03/1615Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 03/1641Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 03/1432Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4443 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (04 Jul, 05 Jul, 06 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jul 068
Predicted 04 Jul-06 Jul 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 03 Jul 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jul 004/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jul 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jul-06 Jul 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/15/15
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