From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Wednesday, July 4, 2018
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 185 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jul 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (05 Jul, 06 Jul, 07 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 351 km/s at 04/0329Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 04/1732Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 04/0349Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3066 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (05 Jul, 06 Jul, 07 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jul 068
Predicted 05 Jul-07 Jul 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 04 Jul 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jul 005/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jul 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/15/15
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