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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 July 2018

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, July 5, 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 186 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jul 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (06 Jul, 07 Jul, 08 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 465 km/s at 05/1945Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 05/1945Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 05/1111Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1221 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (06 Jul) and quiet levels on days two and three (07 Jul, 08 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Jul 068
Predicted   06 Jul-08 Jul 068/068/070
90 Day Mean        05 Jul 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jul  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jul  012/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jul-08 Jul  011/005-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/10
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    40/20/15

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