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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 July 2018

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Monday, July 9, 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 190 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Jul, 11 Jul, 12 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 452 km/s at 09/0737Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 370 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (10 Jul), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (11 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (12 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Jul 073
Predicted   10 Jul-12 Jul 073/075/076
90 Day Mean        09 Jul 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jul  009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul  010/012-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    35/25/15

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