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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 July 2018

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, July 12, 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jul 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (13 Jul, 14 Jul, 15 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 461 km/s at 12/1803Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 12/0500Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 12/0500Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (13 Jul, 14 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (15 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Jul 072
Predicted   13 Jul-15 Jul 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        12 Jul 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jul  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jul  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul  006/005-006/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    15/15/20

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