From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Wednesday, August 8, 2018
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 220 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Aug 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (09 Aug, 10 Aug, 11 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 458 km/s at 08/1937Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 07/2114Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 08/0951Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (09 Aug), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (10 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day three (11 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Aug 070
Predicted 09 Aug-11 Aug 070/069/068
90 Day Mean 08 Aug 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Aug 011/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Aug 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Aug-11 Aug 006/005-007/008-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 01/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 20/25/30
Major-severe storm 20/25/40
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