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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 August 2018

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, August 9, 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 221 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Aug 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (10 Aug, 11 Aug, 12 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 443 km/s at 08/2155Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (10 Aug, 11 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (12 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Aug 070
Predicted   10 Aug-12 Aug 070/069/069
90 Day Mean        09 Aug 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Aug  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Aug  006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Aug-12 Aug  005/005-006/005-009/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/25

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