From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Friday, August 10, 2018
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Aug 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (11 Aug, 12 Aug, 13 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 398 km/s at 10/1233Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 10/0756Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 10/1838Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (11 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (12 Aug, 13 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Aug 070
Predicted 11 Aug-13 Aug 069/069/069
90 Day Mean 10 Aug 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Aug 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Aug 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug 006/005-009/008-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 20/25/30
Major-severe storm 10/25/25
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