From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Saturday, August 11, 2018
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 223 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Aug 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (12 Aug, 13 Aug, 14 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 417 km/s at 11/2033Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 11/0329Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 11/2021Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (12 Aug), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (13 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (14 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Aug 067
Predicted 12 Aug-14 Aug 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 11 Aug 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Aug 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Aug 009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Aug-14 Aug 011/012-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 30/25/10
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