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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 August 2018

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Sunday, August 12, 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 224 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Aug 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
on days one, two, and three (13 Aug, 14 Aug, 15 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 429 km/s at 12/2053Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 11/2159Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 12/1732Z.

III. Event probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Aug 068
Predicted 13 Aug-15 Aug 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 12 Aug 071 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 11 Aug 011/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Aug 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap
90 Day Mean 12 Aug 071 V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Aug 011/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Aug 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Aug-15 Aug 007/008-006/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/10/10

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (13 Aug) and quiet levels on days two and three (14 Aug, 15 Aug).


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