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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 September 2018

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Tuesday, September 4, 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 247 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Sep 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (05 Sep, 06 Sep, 07 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 450 km/s at 04/1825Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 04/0417Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 04/0354Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 12215 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (05 Sep), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (06 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day three (07 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Sep-07 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Sep 068
Predicted   05 Sep-07 Sep 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        04 Sep 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Sep  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Sep  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Sep-07 Sep  006/005-007/008-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Sep-07 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/30
Minor Storm           01/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/30
Major-severe storm    15/20/40

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