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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 September 2018

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Wednesday, September 5, 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 248 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Sep 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (06 Sep, 07 Sep, 08 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 513 km/s at 05/1304Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 05/0108Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 05/0108Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2506 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (06 Sep, 08 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day two (07 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Sep 068
Predicted   06 Sep-08 Sep 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        05 Sep 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Sep  009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Sep  010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep  007/008-009/012-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/30/25
Minor Storm           01/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    20/40/30

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