From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, September 6, 2018
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Sep 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (07 Sep, 08 Sep, 09 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 505 km/s at 06/0008Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 06/1933Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 06/0306Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1298 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 Sep), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (08 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (09 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Sep 068
Predicted 07 Sep-09 Sep 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 06 Sep 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Sep 009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Sep 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Sep-09 Sep 009/012-007/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 40/30/20
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