Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 September 2018

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Sunday, September 9, 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 251 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Sep 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (09 Sep, 10 Sep, 11 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 442 km/s at 07/2118Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 08/0730Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 08/1525Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1086 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (09 Sep), quiet to active levels on day two (10 Sep) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (11 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Sep-11 Sep

Class M    01/01/01

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           08 Sep 069

Predicted   09 Sep-11 Sep 070/070/070

90 Day Mean        08 Sep 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 07 Sep  005/005

Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Sep  006/006

Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Sep-11 Sep  006/005-011/012-017/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Sep-11 Sep

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                10/35/30

Minor Storm           01/20/35

Major-severe storm    01/05/25

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/10/05

Minor Storm           25/25/15

Major-severe storm    20/55/80

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