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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 September 2018

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Wednesday, September 12, 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 255 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Sep 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (13 Sep, 14 Sep, 15 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 624 km/s at 12/0438Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 11/2337Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 12/0328Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1911 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (13 Sep), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (14 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (15 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Sep-15 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Sep 070
Predicted   13 Sep-15 Sep 068/068/070
90 Day Mean        12 Sep 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Sep  024/030
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Sep  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Sep-15 Sep  010/012-009/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Sep-15 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/10
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    35/25/20

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