Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 September 2018

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Friday, September 14, 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 257 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (15 Sep, 16 Sep, 17 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 655 km/s at 14/2050Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 13/2337Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 14/0139Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 42518 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (15 Sep) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (16 Sep, 17 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Sep 069
Predicted   15 Sep-17 Sep 069/069/069
90 Day Mean        14 Sep 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep 017/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Sep 013/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep 007/010-013/016-012/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active                20/30/30
Minor Storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    25/40/35