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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 September 2018

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Saturday, September 15, 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 258 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Sep 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (16 Sep, 17 Sep, 18 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 659 km/s at 14/2213Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 14/2205Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 15/1516Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 39830 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (16 Sep, 17 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (18 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Sep 069
Predicted   16 Sep-18 Sep 069/069/069
90 Day Mean        15 Sep 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Sep  011/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Sep  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep  013/016-012/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/20
Minor Storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    40/40/30

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