From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Saturday, September 15, 2018
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 258 Issued at 2200Z onIA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (16 Sep, 17 Sep, 18 Sep). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 659 km/s at 14/2213Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 14/2205Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 15/1516Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 39830 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (16 Sep, 17 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (). III. Event probabilities Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 15 Sep 069 Predicted 069/069/069 90 Day Mean 15 Sep 070 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 14 Sep 011/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Sep 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 013/016-012/012-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/20 Minor Storm 10/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/25/30 Major-severe storm 40/40/30
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