From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Sunday, October 7, 2018
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Oct 2018 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (08 Oct, 09 Oct, 10 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 616 km/s at 07/1756Z. Total IMF reached 18 nT at 07/1226Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -14 nT at 07/1418Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 343 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (08 Oct) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (09 Oct, 10 Oct). III. Event probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 07 Oct 068 Predicted 08 Oct-10 Oct 069/069/069 90 Day Mean 07 Oct 069 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 06 Oct 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Oct 018/027 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Oct-10 Oct 023/035-014/015-014/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/35/35 Minor Storm 35/15/15 Major-severe storm 20/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 05/10/10 Minor Storm 20/25/25 Major-severe storm 75/50/50
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