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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 October 2018

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Sunday, October 7, 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Oct 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (08 Oct, 09 Oct, 10 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 616 km/s at 07/1756Z. Total IMF reached 18 nT at 07/1226Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -14 nT at 07/1418Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 343 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (08 Oct) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (09 Oct, 10 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Oct 068
Predicted   08 Oct-10 Oct 069/069/069
90 Day Mean        07 Oct 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Oct  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Oct  018/027
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Oct-10 Oct  023/035-014/015-014/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor Storm           35/15/15
Major-severe storm    20/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/10
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    75/50/50

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