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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 October 2018

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Monday, October 8, 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 281 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Oct 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (09 Oct, 10 Oct, 11 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 600 km/s at 07/2336Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 07/2145Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 08/0239Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10717 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (09 Oct, 10 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (11 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Oct 069
Predicted   09 Oct-11 Oct 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        08 Oct 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Oct  013/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Oct  023/029
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct  014/015-011/012-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/25
Minor Storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    40/40/35

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