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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 October 2018

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Tuesday, October 9, 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (10 Oct, 11 Oct, 12 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 632 km/s at 09/0943Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 09/0040Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 09/0541Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 39176 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (10 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (11 Oct, 12 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Oct 070
Predicted   10 Oct-12 Oct 070/070/072
90 Day Mean        09 Oct 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Oct  016/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Oct  013/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct  011/012-009/010-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/20
Minor Storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    40/35/25

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