From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Wednesday, October 10, 2018
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2018 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (11 Oct, 12 Oct, 13 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 583 km/s at 09/2240Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 10/1108Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 10/1335Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 31197 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (11 Oct), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (12 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (13 Oct). III. Event probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 10 Oct 070 Predicted 11 Oct-13 Oct 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 10 Oct 069 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct 014/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Oct 012/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct 010/012-009/008-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/20/15 Minor Storm 10/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/25/20 Major-severe storm 40/30/20
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