Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 November 2018

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, November 1, 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 305 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Nov 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (02 Nov, 03 Nov, 04 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 362 km/s at 01/0828Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 01/0523Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 01/0403Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (02 Nov), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (03 Nov) and unsettled to active levels on day thre (04 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Nov 067
Predicted   02 Nov-04 Nov 067/067/067
90 Day Mean        01 Nov 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Oct  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Nov  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov  006/005-016/025-015/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/35/30
Minor Storm           05/20/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/30
Major-severe storm    15/45/35

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