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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 November 2018

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Sunday, November 4, 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 308 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Nov 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (05 Nov, 06 Nov, 07 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 458 km/s at 04/1823Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 04/1942Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 04/1942Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (05 Nov), quiet to active levels on day two (06 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (07 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Nov 067
Predicted   05 Nov-07 Nov 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        04 Nov 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Nov  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Nov  009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov  015/020-010/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/25/20
Minor Storm           20/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    60/40/30

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